Prediction Markets (HIP-4)

HIP-4 is live on testnet. When mainnet launches, hypernode will detect new markets within 60 seconds and start streaming prediction events automatically. No configuration needed.

Prediction actions in the stream

Five HIP-4 actions appear as pre-consensus events in the gossip stream:

Type	Description	Data
`userOutcome`	Order on an outcome token	Outcome asset ID, amount
`splitOutcome`	Split USDH into YES + NO tokens	Outcome ID, amount
`mergeOutcome`	Merge YES + NO back into USDH	Outcome ID, amount
`negateOutcome`	Swap YES for NO (or vice versa)	Outcome ID, amount
`mergeQuestion`	Merge multi-outcome tokens back into USDH	Question ID, amount

Confirmed events

Prediction orders and fills appear as regular confirmed events with # coin names:

{
  "type": "order",
  "consensus": "confirmed",
  "asset": "#40860",
  "data": {
    "coin": "#40860",
    "side": "B",
    "px": "0.40",
    "sz": "30.0",
    "status": "open",
    "prediction": {
      "outcome_id": 4086,
      "side_index": 0,
      "asset_id": 100040860
    }
  }
}

The prediction object is automatically enriched on every event with a # coin.

Settlement events

When an outcome settles, fills appear with dir: "Settlement":

{
  "type": "fill",
  "consensus": "confirmed",
  "asset": "#40861",
  "data": {
    "coin": "#40861",
    "px": "0.0",
    "side": "A",
    "dir": "Settlement",
    "closedPnl": "-10.4",
    "fee": "0.0",
    "feeToken": "USDH"
  }
}

px: "1.0" = this side won (token redeemable for 1 USDH)
px: "0.0" = this side lost (token worth nothing)
side: "A" = auto-settlement (not a user trade)

Subscribing to prediction events

All prediction market activity:

{
  "action": "subscribe",
  "filters": {
    "action_types": ["userOutcome", "splitOutcome", "mergeOutcome", "mergeQuestion", "negateOutcome"]
  }
}

Track a specific outcome token:

{
  "action": "subscribe",
  "filters": {"assets": ["#40860"]}
}

Track settlements (filter confirmed fills, check for dir: "Settlement"):

{
  "action": "subscribe",
  "filters": {"action_types": ["fill"], "assets": ["#40860"]}
}

Metadata enrichment

Every prediction event is automatically enriched with metadata from outcomeMeta, refreshed every 60 seconds:

Field	Type	Description
`prediction.outcome_id`	number	Outcome ID
`prediction.side_index`	number	0 = Yes, 1 = No (or custom sides)
`prediction.asset_id`	number	Full asset ID (100M + encoding)

The enriched prices endpoint adds more:

Field	Description
`outcome_name`	Human-readable name
`side_name`	”Yes”, “No”, or custom (e.g., “Hypurr”)
`question`	Parent question name (multi-outcome)
`price_binary.underlying`	Underlying asset (e.g., “BTC”)
`price_binary.target_price`	Target price
`price_binary.expiry`	Expiry timestamp
`price_binary.period`	Roll period (e.g., “1d”, “15m”)

Admin events

These appear when markets are created or settled:

Type	Description
`registerQuestion`	New prediction question created
`registerOutcome`	New outcome added
`settleOutcome`	Outcome resolved (triggers settlement fills)
`changeOutcomeDescription`	Outcome metadata updated (e.g., recurring market rolls to new expiry)

Real-time Streaming

Event Types

System

Prediction Markets (HIP-4)

Prediction actions in the stream

Confirmed events

Settlement events

Subscribing to prediction events

Metadata enrichment

Admin events

​Prediction actions in the stream

​Confirmed events

​Settlement events

​Subscribing to prediction events

​Metadata enrichment

​Admin events

Prediction actions in the stream

Confirmed events

Settlement events

Subscribing to prediction events

Metadata enrichment

Admin events