Prediction Market Trading

HyperLiquid’s prediction markets (HIP-4) let you trade on real-world outcomes. This guide covers the full flow from discovery to settlement.

HIP-4 is currently active on testnet with sample outcomes. Mainnet has 0 outcomes live as of April 2026. This guide works for both networks. The trading flow is identical.

How predictions work

Each prediction market has multiple outcomes. Each outcome has two sides: YES and NO. These are traded as spot tokens on HyperLiquid’s spot rails, not as perpetuals.

YES tokens are worth $1 if the outcome happens,$ 0 if not
NO tokens are worth $1 if the outcome doesn't happen,$ 0 if it does
Prices reflect the market’s probability estimate
Settlement is automatic via L1 mark price

Step 1: Discover available markets

curl -H "x-api-key: YOUR_KEY" "https://hyper.polynode.dev/v2/prediction/markets"

Each market returns its outcomes with their encoding numbers.

Step 2: Understand the asset ID system

Every prediction outcome token has a unique encoding:

encoding = 10 * outcome_id + side_index

Where side_index is 0 for YES, 1 for NO. The coin name uses the # prefix: #39890 means outcome 3989, YES side. The numeric asset ID is 100,000,000 + encoding. So #39890 has asset ID 100,039,890.

Examples

Outcome ID	Side	Encoding	Coin name	Asset ID
3989	YES	39890	#39890	100,039,890
3989	NO	39891	#39891	100,039,891
3990	YES	39900	#39900	100,039,900

Step 3: Get collateral

Prediction markets trade in USDH, not USDC. To get USDH:

Transfer USDC to your HyperLiquid spot balance
Buy USDH at the spot pair @180 (USDH/USDC)

Step 4: Check the order book

# L2 order book for a prediction outcome
curl -H "x-api-key: YOUR_KEY" \
  "https://hyper.polynode.dev/exchange/prediction/orderbook?outcome=3989&side=0"

Or use the standard orderbook endpoint with the coin name:

curl -H "x-api-key: YOUR_KEY" \
  "https://hyper.polynode.dev/v2/orderbook?coin=%2339890"

Note: %23 is the URL-encoded # character.

Step 5: Place an order

Use the exchange API to place orders on prediction tokens. The order format is the same as any HyperLiquid spot order.

# Via the exchange API (requires registered wallet)
curl -X POST "https://hyper.polynode.dev/exchange/order" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "x-api-key: YOUR_KEY" \
  -d '{
    "coin": "#39890",
    "is_buy": true,
    "sz": "10",
    "limit_px": "0.65",
    "order_type": {"limit": {"tif": "Gtc"}}
  }'

This places a limit buy for 10 YES tokens at $0.65 each.

Step 6: Track in the stream

Subscribe to prediction market events in the WebSocket stream:

{"action": "subscribe", "filters": {"assets": ["#39890"]}}

You’ll see orders, fills, and cancellations for this outcome token, tagged with consensus: "confirmed".

ws.on("message", (raw) => {
  const event = JSON.parse(raw.toString());
  if (event.type === "fill" && event.asset === "#39890") {
    console.log(`Prediction fill: ${event.data.dir} ${event.data.sz} @ ${event.data.px}`);
  }
});

Step 7: Settlement

When the outcome is determined:

The YES token settles at $1, the NO token at$ 0 (or vice versa)
Settlement is automatic via the L1 mark price
Your position is closed at the settlement price
PnL is credited to your spot balance in USDH

Convenience endpoints

hypernode provides enriched prediction market endpoints:

Endpoint	What it returns
`/v2/prediction/markets`	All prediction markets with outcomes
`/v2/prediction/market?id=N`	Single market details
`/exchange/prediction/prices`	Current prices for all outcome tokens
`/exchange/prediction/orderbook?outcome=N&side=S`	L2 book for one outcome side
`/exchange/prediction/trades?outcome=N&side=S`	Recent trades
`/exchange/prediction/settled?outcome=N`	Settlement result

Testnet

To experiment with prediction trading on testnet:

Get testnet USDC from the HyperLiquid testnet faucet
Connect to the testnet stream: wss://hyper.polynode.dev/ws-testnet?key=YOUR_KEY
Use the exchange API with network=testnet parameter

Testnet currently has sample outcomes for testing the full trading flow.

Getting Started

Understanding the Stream

Building with hypernode

Examples

Prediction Market Trading

How predictions work

Step 1: Discover available markets

Step 2: Understand the asset ID system

Examples

Step 3: Get collateral

Step 4: Check the order book

Step 5: Place an order

Step 6: Track in the stream

Step 7: Settlement

Convenience endpoints

Testnet

​How predictions work

​Step 1: Discover available markets

​Step 2: Understand the asset ID system

​Examples

​Step 3: Get collateral

​Step 4: Check the order book

​Step 5: Place an order

​Step 6: Track in the stream

​Step 7: Settlement

​Convenience endpoints

​Testnet

How predictions work

Step 1: Discover available markets

Step 2: Understand the asset ID system

Examples

Step 3: Get collateral

Step 4: Check the order book

Step 5: Place an order

Step 6: Track in the stream

Step 7: Settlement

Convenience endpoints

Testnet