Prediction Markets

HIP-4 prediction markets are currently on testnet only. When they launch on mainnet, all endpoints will return live data automatically. The WebSocket stream will include prediction market events within 60 seconds of launch. hypernode is mainnet-ready.

How it works

HyperLiquid’s HIP-4 introduces binary outcome markets directly on L1. Each outcome has two tradeable tokens (YES/NO) that settle to 0 or 1. Outcome tokens trade on spot rails using the same CLOB matching engine as regular spot pairs (200K+ orders/sec, ~200ms finality). USDH is the only collateral. All capital cross-margins with your perp and spot positions in the same account.

Key concepts

Outcome tokens

Each outcome has two sides, each tradeable as its own token:

Concept	Format	Example
Outcome ID	integer	`4086`
Side index	`0` (Yes) or `1` (No)	`0`
Coin name	`#{10 * outcome_id + side}`	`#40860`
Asset ID	`100,000,000 + 10 * outcome_id + side`	`100040860`

Market types

Binary outcomes — standalone YES/NO markets (e.g., “Will BTC be above $74,650 by Apr 15?”) Multi-outcome questions — a question with multiple outcomes. Each outcome has YES/NO sides. A fallback “Other” outcome absorbs remaining probability. Example: “What will Hypurr eat?” with outcomes Akami, Canned Tuna, Otoro, Other. Recurring price binaries — auto-rolling markets tied to an underlying asset price. Same outcome ID, updated expiry and target each period (daily, 15-min, etc.). Description contains structured metadata:

class:priceBinary|underlying:BTC|expiry:20260415-0300|targetPrice:74650|period:1d

Collateral

Prediction markets use USDH (not USDC) as collateral. On mainnet, USDH trades at ~$0.995. To get USDH:

Transfer USDC from perp to spot balance
Buy USDH via the USDH/USDC spot pair (token index 360)

Settlement

Settlement is automatic. The L1 reads its own mark price and settles every position in one block. No oracle dispute window, no claim button, no waiting.

Price binaries: L1 consensus reads the HyperCore mark price at expiry. If the condition is met, YES settles at 1.0 and NO at 0.0. Otherwise reversed.
Event outcomes: A resolution oracle posts the result. Single transaction settles all positions.

Settlement fills appear in your fill history with:

{
  "coin": "#40861",
  "px": "0.0",
  "side": "A",
  "dir": "Settlement",
  "closedPnl": "-10.4",
  "fee": "0.0",
  "feeToken": "USDH"
}

Field	Settlement value
`dir`	`"Settlement"`
`side`	`"A"` (auto)
`px`	`"1.0"` (winner) or `"0.0"` (loser)
`closedPnl`	Your profit/loss in USDH
`fee`	Settlement fee

Fees

Trading: Spot fee schedule (outcome tokens trade on spot rails)
Settlement: 7.0 bps charged in outcome token
Minimum order: size * min(markPx, 1-markPx) >= $10 USDH
Fee token on fills: The outcome token itself (e.g., +90), not USDC/USDH

Prediction actions in the gossip stream

These HIP-4 actions appear as pre-consensus events:

Action	Description
`splitOutcome`	Split USDH into YES + NO tokens for an outcome
`mergeOutcome`	Merge YES + NO tokens back into USDH
`negateOutcome`	Swap YES for NO (or vice versa)
`mergeQuestion`	Merge outcome tokens from a multi-outcome question back into USDH
`userOutcome`	User-specific outcome interaction

Endpoints

Enriched prices (recommended)

GET /exchange/prediction/prices?network=testnet

Returns all outcome tokens with enriched metadata:

{
  "coin": "#40860",
  "outcome_id": 4086,
  "side_index": 0,
  "side_name": "Yes",
  "outcome_name": "Recurring",
  "mid_price": "0.615",
  "price_binary": {
    "type": "priceBinary",
    "underlying": "BTC",
    "expiry": "20260415-0300",
    "target_price": "74650",
    "period": "1d"
  }
}

For multi-outcome questions, includes question and question_id fields.

Other endpoints

Endpoint	Description
`GET /v2/prediction/markets`	Raw outcomeMeta (all outcomes and questions)
`GET /exchange/prediction/outcome?id=N&network=testnet`	Single outcome with both sides, prices, book depth
`GET /exchange/prediction/orderbook?outcome=N&side=S`	L2 orderbook for an outcome token
`GET /exchange/prediction/trades?outcome=N&side=S`	Recent trades
`GET /exchange/prediction/settled?outcome=N`	Settlement status and result

Placing an order

Use the exchange API with # coin notation:

curl -X POST https://hyper.polynode.dev/exchange/order \
  -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_EXCHANGE_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "coin": "#40860",
    "side": "buy",
    "size": 30,
    "price": 0.40,
    "type": "limit",
    "tif": "Gtc"
  }'

{
  "status": "ok",
  "response": {
    "type": "order",
    "data": {
      "statuses": [{"resting": {"oid": 51457023364}}]
    }
  }
}

In the stream

Prediction market orders and fills appear in the unified WebSocket stream with a prediction metadata object:

{
  "type": "order",
  "consensus": "confirmed",
  "asset": "#40860",
  "data": {
    "coin": "#40860",
    "side": "B",
    "px": "0.40",
    "prediction": {
      "outcome_id": 4086,
      "side_index": 0,
      "asset_id": 100040860
    }
  }
}

Filter for prediction events:

{"action": "subscribe", "filters": {"assets": ["#40860"]}}

Settlement events also appear in the stream as fills with dir: "Settlement".

Testnet markets (live)

Outcome	Type	Sides	Coin (YES)
BTC daily binary	Price binary	Yes/No	`#40860`
HYPE 15-min binary	Price binary	Yes/No	`#41250`
100m dash	Event	Hypurr/Usain Bolt	`#90`
Akami tuna	Multi-outcome	Yes/No	`#100`
Canned Tuna	Multi-outcome	Yes/No	`#110`
Otoro	Multi-outcome	Yes/No	`#120`
Other (fallback)	Multi-outcome	Yes/No	`#130`

Overview

L4 Order Book

Market Data

User Data

DeFi

Discovery